It's possible that every member of New Jersey's 11-person House delegation will be a Democrat in 2019.
New Jersey is emerging as one of the bluest states in the country, with Trump and former Gov. Chris Christie likely being key reasons why. That’s very bad new for Republican House members trying to win re-election this year in the Garden State.
New Jersey Democrats have a gigantic 19-point lead on the generic ballot in terms of which party voters plan to support in November, and may be on the verge of riding one of the biggest waves in the country, according to a new Monmouth University poll.
The wave is so big that it’s possible that every member of New Jersey’s 11-person House delegation will be a Democrat come next January.
“If these results hold, we could be down to just one or two — or maybe even zero — Republican members in the state congressional delegation after November,” said Patrick Murray, director of the independent Monmouth University Polling Institute. “New Jersey Republicans are facing hurricane-force headwinds right now.”
According to the poll, much of the swing toward Democrats is coming from areas that traditionally elect Republicans. In the five districts where House Republicans currently serve, the GOP has a small two-point advantage in the Monmouth poll. But in November 2016, Republicans won those five districts by an average of 22 points.
The nonpartisan Cooke Political Report lists four of the five Republican House seats in New Jersey as being competitive, with the two open, retirement races tagged as “lean Democratic” and “toss-up.”
Republicans truly are facing a perfect storm in New Jersey, where contempt for Trump runs high (61 percent disapproval rating), and the GOP tax plan is deeply unpopular (only 19 percent expect their taxes to go down).
Plus, there’s still lingering resentment toward Christie, who left office this year as one of the least-popular politicians in the state’s history.
Current Gov. Phil Murphy will be well positioned to help advance legislation like the collection of gun control measures recently advanced in the New Jersey Senate, which he applauded.
Meanwhile on the Senate side, Democratic Sen. Bob Menendez enjoys a comfortable, 21-point lead in his re-election campaign.
Republicans had hoped Menendez would be vulnerable since he spent much of last year defending himself in a federal corruption case, which ended in a mistrial. This year, the Department of Justice dropped all charges against him.
Republicans are becoming a vanishing breed in New Jersey.